Tracking elections, redistricting and democratic reform through original research and data analysis.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined September 2026
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USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Florida's new congressional map cost Democrats a seat in 2026
On the old 2022-24 lines, this year's House vote would have elected 9 Democrats. The new map held them to 8, with 5 seats decided by under a point (FL-7, 9, 13, 26, 27)
@DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Can Republicans ever win in California? My grim analysis of the GOP's chances in the future in Essential California in @latimes, relying on @USCPolFuture @uscdfelab polling latimes.com/california/newsl…
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats
Old map: 7R-2D
New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt
per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Resharing: working on a more formal measure of overperformance, but preliminarily @BlueDogBark backed challengers ran 4.6 pts better than other Dem challengers after controls. Bobby Pulido’s +43 in TX-15 was truly extraordinary.
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Can we just say a collective word of thanks for @DecisionDeskHQ & @VoteHub which provided amazing data & terrific analysis thru the entire cycle? They proved an invaluable addition to our understanding of how US votes & why-in real time! Kudos to @geoffreyvs and @ZacharyDonnini
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
UT Republicans' Map C was drawn for a 4-0 GOP sweep, but failed to pass. With 2026's House vote, it likely would have elected 2 Dems
Current map: 3R-1D
Old 2021 map: 2R-2D
Map C: 2R-2D
per @DecisionDeskHQ, with an est. 15-25% of ballots still uncounted
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta
Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9
House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading)
Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip)
per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Virginia Democrats' HB 29 map was approved by voters in April but was struck down by the state Supreme Court
Run the 2026 House vote through it and Dems would have won 10 of 11 seats. On the current map they still won 8, flipping VA-1 and VA-2, per @DecisionDeskHQ @geoffreyvs
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired
SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map
IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map
@DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Annie Andrews ran ahead of every House Democrat in South Carolina
She carried 5 of 7 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans: Joe Wilson's SC-2 (+10.9 over the House Dem), William Timmons' SC-4 (+8.3) and Wes Climer's SC-5 (+6.0), per @DecisionDeskHQ
Nithya Raman's victory as L.A. mayor was fueled by the east side of Los Angeles. Our @uscdfelab poll showed @nithyavraman beating @KarenBassLA nearly 2-to-1 in the east and central parts of L.A. city. On the left shows the returns (from @latimes) with Raman dominating the east and central parts of L.A., and on the right is our poll showing Karen Bass had a ceiling in this part of the city.
Raman's support on the east side of Los Angeles - one of her base areas - was pronounced among young voters. Raman also won Asian, Latino, and non-Hispanic white voters on the east side of LA. Note the @uscdfelab poll surveyed only LA city voters living in #ca34 congressional. thedemocracylab.com/ca34
The poll was conducted in the #ca34 congressional district between @Angela4CA & Jimmy Gomez, so the mayoral results apply only to the area of CA34 that overlaps with the city of LA (about 16% of the city of L.A.). But it helps explain how Raman won w/ strong support on LA's east side.
Full poll results and crosstabs here: thedemocracylab.com/pdfs/ca3…
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
Independents ran 8 to 14 points ahead of Trump's 2024 margin in all four states, but lost all
The most winnable was likely in Montana, where Bodnar and Democrat Bankhead combined for 49.8% to Alme's 48.3%. A one-on-one race could have gone the other way, per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
TX saw massive ticket-splitting, with James Talarico carrying 27 of 38 congressional districts while House Democrats won just 14
Talarico beat Ken Paxton by 12.1 points, carrying 13 districts that elected a Republican to the House, per @DecisionDeskHQ and @theoelections
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
GA was another state to shift left, with Keisha Lance Bottoms beating Rick Jackson by 8.6 points, a 10.8-point swing from 2024
Down ballot, Democrats are on track to flip the state House 93-87, with Republicans keeping the state Senate, 29-27 per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
PA shifted further left, with Josh Shapiro winning by 22.1 points, a 23.8-point swing from 2024
Down ballot, Democrats flipped the state Senate 26-24 and are on track to grow their state House majority to 115-88, giving them their first trifecta since 1993, per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
TX was one of the many states to shift left last night, with Gina Hinojosa beating Greg Abbott by 8.1 points, a 21.8-point swing 2024
Down ballot, Democrats are on track to flip the state House 83-67, with Republicans keeping the state Senate, 19-12 per @DecisionDeskHQ
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab retweeted
North Carolina shifted significantly to the left last night
Roy Cooper flipped won by 19.6 points, a 22.8-point swing from Trump’s 2024 win
Down the ballot, the GOP’s state Senate supermajority is gone, and if leads hold, Democrats flip the state House 71-48 per @DecisionDeskHQ
