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Jake Marks

@jakemarks42

GIS & Election Science | @DecisionDeskHQ GovCast | Political Analysis Across the Globe

 Florida, USA
thedemocracylab.com/
Joined July 2021
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  • Followers866
Jake Marks retweeted
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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki22h
Replying to @ZacharyDonnini @LukeAnalysis @CHueyBurns @SalvantoCBS
Don’t know what Temu means, but don’t sell yourself short at all, Zach. I’ve been super-impressed with your work, your command of the map and of voting patterns. Congratulations on an incredible year.
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Michael McFaul
@McFaul12h
This is really interesting:
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Jake Marks retweeted
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Jake Marks@jakemarks4236m
Florida's new congressional map cost Democrats a seat in 2026 On the old 2022-24 lines, this year's House vote would have elected 9 Democrats. The new map held them to 8, with 5 seats decided by under a point (FL-7, 9, 13, 26, 27) @DecisionDeskHQ
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Florida's new congressional map cost Democrats a seat in 2026 On the old 2022-24 lines, this year's House vote would have elected 9 Democrats. The new map held them to 8, with 5 seats decided by under a point (FL-7, 9, 13, 26, 27) @DecisionDeskHQ
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Can Republicans ever win in California? My grim analysis of the GOP's chances in the future in Essential California in @latimes, relying on @USCPolFuture @uscdfelab polling latimes.com/california/newsl…
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Moderate-affiliated candidates overperformed in swing areas; left-affiliated candidates overperformed in the most Democratic areas & underperformed in others economist.com/graphic-detail…
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ethan winter@EthanBWinterNov 4
Resharing: working on a more formal measure of overperformance, but preliminarily @BlueDogBark backed challengers ran 4.6 pts better than other Dem challengers after controls. Bobby Pulido’s +43 in TX-15 was truly extraordinary.
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Decision Desk HQ projects No wins the CA Proposition 40 - One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Healthcare, Education, and Food Assistance Programs Nonpartisan Ballot Question #DecisionMade: 8:51 PM EST Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
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jabberwocky12@trobo1122h
What are they gonna do, poll each other?
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Jake Marks retweeted
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Jake Marks@jakemarks4219h
Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats Old map: 7R-2D New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt per @DecisionDeskHQ
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Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats Old map: 7R-2D New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt per @DecisionDeskHQ
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Jake Marks retweeted
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Jake Marks@jakemarks42Nov 6
UT Republicans' Map C was drawn for a 4-0 GOP sweep, but failed to pass. With 2026's House vote, it likely would have elected 2 Dems Current map: 3R-1D Old 2021 map: 2R-2D Map C: 2R-2D per @DecisionDeskHQ, with an est. 15-25% of ballots still uncounted
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UT Republicans' Map C was drawn for a 4-0 GOP sweep, but failed to pass. With 2026's House vote, it likely would have elected 2 Dems Current map: 3R-1D Old 2021 map: 2R-2D Map C: 2R-2D per @DecisionDeskHQ, with an est. 15-25% of ballots still uncounted
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With the Conley projection, DDHQ now says that there will be zero, count 'em zero, Republican-held crossover seats won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) profile pictureDecision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQNov 6
Decision Desk HQ projects Cait Conley wins the NY US House 17 General Election #DecisionMade: 9:19 PM EST Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
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Jake Marks@jakemarks42Nov 6
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
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In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
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Jake Marks retweeted
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Jake Marks@jakemarks42Nov 6
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9 House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading) Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip) per @DecisionDeskHQ
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In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9 House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading) Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip) per @DecisionDeskHQ
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Despite a far stronger national environment for Democrats, Independent Dan Osborn's second run for Senate did not end up different than his first. He trails projected winner Pete Ricketts by 6.8%, a worse margin in 2024 (6.7%).
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From 1994 through 2022, the president’s party lost only 2 of 54 Senate seats it defended in midterms in states that leaned 10+ points its way vs. the nation in the last presidential. In 2026, the GOP has lost at least 4: Texas, Kansas, South Carolina & Iowa.
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