Independent energy consultant helping businesses with projects across the electricity, gas and oil industries. Visit my website at https://nitter.cf/t.co/R6X2soLz4g
Joined April 2015
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In the past couple of weeks we've seen some worrying trends on the GB power grid with unprecedented summer margin notices and three occasions on which system operator @neso_energy was forced to ask the EU to lift intraday interconnector trading limits
But more worrying is what hasn't been widely reported - on 23 June there was persistent low frequency through the evening which NESO eventually solved by curtailing exports
Not by buying the capacity back, but by requesting "Emergency Assistance" - these aren't really requests - although the other TSO can reject the request it can't stop NESO from turning the flow off at the exit substation
Why is this worrying?
1. NESO didn't issue any warnings to the market that GB margins were tight yet it was unable to keep frequency within the safe operating limit - why not?
2. By cutting off exports to the Netherlands and France, in the absence of any system warnings, NESO has just made cutting off exports part of the normal operational toolkit. As we rely on imports in winter we might regret this move as the other countries will feel far more able to reduce their exports to us after this move
3. Did the absence of any warnings issued by NESO mean it didn't see the tight margins coming ie was it due to forecasting errors?
4. Was the system actually secure during this period? Was NESO compliant with the SQSS (requirement to at all times hold enough reserve to cover the loss of the single largest infeed - I doubt it since at times during the say the demand forecast error was higher than the required reserve holding)? Were any transmission constraints violated?
The fact there has been no discussion of this by NESO is also worrying. NESO seems to think if it keeps quiet about its challenges nobody will notice
But the demand forecasting errors are growing, as the system becomes more complex. The maximum error so far this year is almost 4x the SQSS!!
And that's the average over half an hour - the instantaneous error is likely far higher. And of course NESO balances the grid from instant to instant, not over half hours
So can NESO actually PROVE it can run the grid securely? Everyone assumes it can because we haven't had a blackout. But the absence of a disaster is not the same as safety - running into traffic isn't safe just because you're not run over every time you do it
@ofgem @energygovuk @ClaireCoutinho @AndrewBowie_MP @NJ_Timothy @griffitha @cmackinlay @DavidGHFrost @mattwridley @TiceRichard @Iromg @AllisonPearson @EdConwaySky @afneil @MerrynSW @mattotele @jonathan_leake
watt-logic.com/2026/07/02/ne…
So this is interesting... Wind output has collapsed today so you'd expect balancing costs to fall
And they have, but not as much as you'd think... Still over £10 million today vs an average of £2.3 million
With the grid dominated by dispatchable generation today it's curious that it's still so expensive to balance the grid
No energy security in Scotland without a repowered Peterhead is correct. But with the existing plant 26 years old and the lead time for new GTs c 7 years the maths are at risk of not mathing...
@DavidLinden absolutely right with this line of questioning to @mgshanks on last night’s @bbcdebatenight.
Shanks attempting a blatant bluff that the £200 million for @AcornProject_UK is ‘still there’, and even explaining that (instead of being grant funded as previously promised), it would need to be paid back or exchanged for UK Government ownership of the project.
This might be seen as an entirely sensible approach to ongoing funding of #CCUS, but then why not apply the same approach to the other three Track-1 and Track-2 clusters?
Oh and Shanks also tries to describe Acorn as a project for removing emissions from the Central Belt, ignoring the crucial role it has to play in supporting the proposed NEW CCS Gas Power Plant in #Peterhead.
Linden then lets himself down* (and, to some extent Shanks off the hook), by banging on about ‘green lights’).
(*but not nearly as much as he did shamefully in response to a later question about immigration, referring to an audience member as racist!)
There’s no version of the second half of this century without continued (albeit reduced) #oilandgas demand here in the UK. There is certainly no version of #NetZero (2050 or otherwise) without #CarbonCapture. And there will be no #EnergySecurity in #Scotland without a NEW #naturalgas powered station in Peterhead.
The UK Government needs to be consistent with its funding approach across ALL track-1 and track-2 clusters. And the SNP needs to stop using Acorn as a political point-scoring football.
Kathryn Porter retweeted
Solar and wind: Double nothing is still nothing
Germany has built wind and solar at 3.8x its average use, yet they provide just half its power
Double solar and wind:
You get too much when it's worth nothing, and still too little almost half the time
Kathryn Porter retweeted
It seems to me that this Labour government is now, finally, starting to understand that endless borrowing and spending will end up seriously spooking the bond markets, driving the UK off a fiscal cliff-edge.
That's why there were no big giveaways in this "big fat nothing-burger" of a budget.
But that doesn't mean the UK's isn't still extremely fiscally vulnerable ....
The OBR is now projecting borrowing of 4.2pc of GDP for 2026–27, materially higher than the 3.6pc anticipated in the March forecast.
Plus, debt interest payments in the current fiscal year are now set to reach £122 billion, up from previous £108 billion estimate – and rising to a massive £155 billion in 2027/28
I discuss Labour's 2026 Budget Statement with @TVKev on @TalkTV, having spent today going through John Healey's measures with colleagues at @CPSThinkTank and @CapX
Kathryn Porter retweeted
The correlation between gas volume and electricity price is basically zero. The correlation between solar and wind penetration and high electricity prices is very high.
Kathryn Porter retweeted
What is clear is that despite all the tax rises, the Great British Taxpayer still sees no improvement in productivity in the public sector.
Public service (public sector) productivity has been nearly flat overall since 1997, while market-sector (largely private) labour productivity has risen substantially more.
The graph below indexes both series to 1997 = 100. Public service productivity uses the ONS multi-factor (outputs relative to labour + intermediate + capital inputs), quality-adjusted measure for total UK public services. The private/market-sector series is ONS market-sector output per worker (labour productivity), reindexed from its published 2023=100 base.
KEY TRENDS (1997–2025)
Public service productivity: Roughly flat or slightly down through the 2000s (reaching a low around 96 in 2010), then modest recovery in the 2010s (peaking near 104–105 by 2019). It fell sharply in 2020 (~10% drop), partially recovered, and by 2025 was only about 2% above 1997 levels (and still below the 2019 pre-pandemic peak).
Market-sector labour productivity: Rose more steadily pre-2008 (to ~123 by 2007), then grew slowly after the financial crisis. It dipped in 2020 but recovered to ~130 by 2022–2025 (about 30% above 1997 levels).
Sources: ONS Public service productivity (annual + quarterly estimates, 1997–2025) and ONS Labour productivity time series (market-sector output per worker). Data as of the latest available releases (through 2025 provisional/annualised figures for public services).
Agree. I'm in a rural area with 2 broadband services and today my signal was dropping all the time
Cell signal is worse
If you need a phone for safety ie you have medical needs or are vulnerable in some way you need reliable comms without having to fork out for Starlink
Halt copper landline switch-off in all areas
Share widely - Stand up for elderly residents or those in rural communities with poor signal
SIGN AND SHARE
🔽
petition.parliament.uk/petit…
@KathrynPorter26 @GillRaeWalker @silvervoicesuk
Now I'm watching back the House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee with Julian Leslie from @neso_energy
He's Director of Strategic Energy Planning and Chief Engineer
Gets in the idea NESO is very young. Same talking point as Fintan earlier
Q from chair Baroness Sheehan about Dunkelflaute saying NESO's internal report had underestimated the issue but have now successfully navigated the challenges (!) so how does NESO define Dunkelflaute and what assumptions on the operating capacity of wind and solar are made
Julian says they look at lots of scenarios. Wow. Security of supply is the number one thing they won't put at risk (that's not what grid data suggest). They look at likely wind and solar and what meets demand when they are low... Now it's gas and they think gas will continue to do this for many years (what about retirement risk given the age of the fleet?)
New tech such as hydrogen, CCS etc might replace unabated gas
He's told to stop waffling (politely) 😂
Q other witnesses have said NESO should define Dunkelflaute properly and give market signals for investment
Julian says the CP2030 advice and plan does this as do the six strategic spacial energy plan pathways sent to the Secretary of State and expect decision on which one from government
Stuff on the pathways which he says are all secure. They aren't public
Q has NESO done everything required of you. A, in a long winded way is yes
Q on the assumptions, is there clarity on the assumptions when the pathways were submitted... He says yes. Mentions exciting work with the Met Office
Q what does modelling show re risks of Dunkelflaute now and in the future. He says security of supply is a foundational requirement and mentions gas generation used through the 2030s and only declines in the 2040s
Earl Russell...
Q on budget big cuts are coming to DESNZ... Did you have enough information about those for your work. A they used assumptions from DESNZ on demand growth, cost and deployment rates per technology type... These are key to the costings (wonder if those are the very optimistic CCC cost assumptions, and whether they show the same demand growth historic forecasts have shown but not delivered)
Baroness Whitaker...
Q FES say up to 4 GW tidal in 2050 with high upfront cost and limited subsidy... If there were bigger subsidies could it be accelerated. A - see the SSEP. Maybe he should have worn a T-shirt with this on and questions could be more forensic
Back to @johnredwood on 23 June reports
Q how close were they to breaching thermal and transmission limits and do they want to build more margin for the future (we know 5 constraints were breached so let's see how honest the answer is....)
A we're still working on it and can't comment. Wow. The preliminary report already said 5 constraints were breached!!
This committee is not very satisfactory and worse than the ESNZ Committee where questionners were able to dig more into weak answers. Not sure this format holds anyone to account
Lord Aschcombe
Q you say we have one of the most resilient systems. How do you measure that and given we rely so much on electricity imports if Europe wasn't there what happens given how much it is
A first part measured by loss of supply... No blackout = grid is secure. Yay!! Some countries are worse 😂 Interconnectors are valuable and flexible. We can export too!! But we can rely on interconnectors in the Capacity Market and we de-rate them (he called it Mechanism 😂 but it's just not true. The availability test for interconnectors in the CM is they can flow not that they import. NESO cannot compell another country to export to us. Ever)
Q what happens if the Russians cut them. Julian laughs, it's extreme. But we have to have security of supply and we advise government on what to procure in the CM and it's up to them. Again not out fault if it all goes horribly wrong
Earl Russell
Q re Eversheds report debate on renewables shouldn't threaten reliability so do you agree more needs to be done to improve communication between NESO and politicians to avoid false accusations about the reliability of the energy system. (oh dear I guess he didn't read the reports, only the headlines...)
Julian obviously agrees and says NESO is one of the most transparent energy systems (NESO provides a lot of data. Some has errors. Some conflicts with the system of record, BMRS. Some conflicts with itself eg 4 different datasets called constraints...) Resilience is the no1 thing in the control room (which is why they still use tools from the 1980s)
Q from Baroness Sheehan on resource adequacy in the 2030s says new low carbon tech needed and further action needed to develop pipeline for large-scale deployment. By whom is this action needed?
Julian says not us 😂. OK in other words but that's the gist of it. SSEPs blah blah
Q they have heard criticism of NESO's lack of decisiveness and lack of transparency (😂) and delaying decisions. So where are the blockages so we ensure the lights don't go out
Julian says they plan very hard to ensure the lights don't go out (shame some of your engineers think a blackout by the end of next year is a certainty then!) and the old gas fleet is the get out of jail free card. (not if they retire eg has SHBA-1 closed or not... Does he even know??). And NESO gives advice. It doesn't make decisions. Not us guv. Although we were a year late with the SSEP but it's "incredible" (we are amazing and give fab advice)
Lord Jay
Q 2 issues with SSEP... how do you give investors certainty re existing tech while encouraging new tech, and you say DESNZ makes decisions.. Do you help with that?
A having a plan does that. When the government approves it. Which we don't do. It's the government. They select the SSEP. Which is amazing. We're very excellent at NESO. Ofgem will endorse the plan. There will be reformed national pricing. SSEP is in the national policy statements that the Planning Inspectorate uses. Except it's not public yet. Waffle waffle
How many times will he say SSEP??
Baroness Coffee...
Q oh no, asking about the SSEP and a comment Craig Dyke made about the Emergency Assistance (I assume he means the blog). What stood out was there wasn't enough electricity in London so needed help from the French. When all these things are going on, why from an engineering perspective is more not plugged in close to London. Essentially a constraints question and why don't you build inside them
Julian says they have to take account of deliverability and societal impact of the network and the infrastructure is expensive. It's not just for London... SSEP mentioned again 😂. The government will decide soon
Q so you don't think it makes sense to have connections closer to London so you don't need Emergency Assistance from France 😂
Julian says it's a dynamic system and there might have been a circuit out... Most of the time they supply London without EA... The grid is also aging. He doesn't know the exact problem that day but there would have been a reason (reassuring that the Chief Engineer is so on top of the need for a record 1.9 GW of EA from France)
Baroness Rafferty...
Q do you have concerns on workforce to deliver the SSEP
Julian says its not a question for NESO but it's why the SSEP is soooooo important 😂
Lord Trees
Q on increasing reliance on intermittent sources is a challenge and how will costs evolve
A. It's in the CP2030 plan. And the SSEP. He really should have just tattooed it on his head
Q if we're relying on intermittent resources we then need storage and dispatchable generation. Surely there's a sweet spot on tech mix... What is it and how close to it are we....
That's the SSEP. Obviously. Although he thinks nuclear has to run baseload... Guess he doesn't speak to the French grid operator that much then. The French grid is highly reliant on nuclear and uses it to load follow. And to send us extra under EA
Q what is the maximum amount of wind we can safely and economically use.... It's in the SSEP!! The government will decide
@johnredwood again
Q grid costs might go up 50% by 2030 pls comment
Julian says demand is growing (no it isn't) and will write to him because he can't remember the numbers
Baroness Sheehan asked about demand reduction and if NESO has a role in communicating with the public on smoothing out demand to cover short term intermittency requirements and can it cover longer term issues
Julian explains how the DFS works doesn't mention that they used to get 10x more demand response under triad avoidance. Says there are 2m subscribers but they're not delivering very much... Maybe 200-300 MW typically
Shame how little the committee knows about the market as the questions are weak
Now she's asking about using thermal storage. That's a very old tech (the E7 tariff was designed around storage heaters) but most heating is gas so not relevant to flex in the electricity market. I think fewer than 300,000 homes have a heat pump today
Guess what... It's not up to NESO!!
Baroness McIntosh about smart meters not working in rural areas so those communities are being left out. Julian says it's not a role for NESO
Baroness Sheehan on SSEP end 2027 deadline... Who sets that? He says the government. Obviously
So that was that
NESO came before two Parliamentary committees today. The Commons were much tougher than the Lords which was largely pointless in terms of real scrutiny. The time could have been saved if Julian said the answer to almost every question is the SSEP and the government will decide
Wind about to start coming off so the cost of balancing should not rise as much this afternoon as it did this morning particular early when demand was low....
But this chart shows the other challenge... Today we had to throw lots of wind away. Tomorrow there's going to hardly any at all... Only just over 2 GW vs over 32 GW installed
Fintan Slye in front of the Lords Select Committee
He starts with a weak mea culpa on the Eversheds report but repeats the grid was secure blah blah.... Why did you breach grid constraints and run out of reserve then?
@Bill_Esterson asking softball questions... Does Fintan need to be higher profile? No he needs to resign
Now Fintan is blaming "the market" for there not being enough flex in the market. Nothing to do with @neso_energy. Or in fact constraints are probably the actual answer to the question being asked
Moving on to does NESO have too many responsibilities. Great question! NESO has grown headcount 3x in 2 years from 1000 to 3000 people. Are we getting value from this? Fintan thinks so but NESO is failing on most metrics
Next question... You're not managing these responsibilities well? Another great question from @melanie_onn
Is CP2030 still achievable? Fintan hedging. Being pressed. Fintan says it's incredibly challenging but NESO is "absolutely focused" on it (so not focused on security then 🤔)
Now @CatherineFookes asks why did people whistleblow if there wasn't a problem. Fintan says allegations weren't substantiated but NESO "completely committed" to fixing the cultural issues raised. Funny how a minute ago the commitment was to CP2030. Now they're working with trade unions and outside experts to make sure people's "lived experience" is they can raise issues and be listened to. Is pretending the problem is giving feedback to show how concerns were dealt with. Thats NOT consistent with the reports or what staff have told the media
Follow up question how will you improve and what has been done already? They've set up an engineering forum so control room can raise concerns. Also set up operability committee of exec to deal with issues at the highest level. Will regularly update board. Repeats rubbish about the feedback loop... People aren't leaking recordings of your meetings to the @thetimes if it's just a question of feedback
Kayte O'Neill asked the same question. Waffles about trust and any whistleblower is one too many
Asked how high levels of operational stress in the control room are dealt with. Apparently the "guys and girls" in the control room are very open about challenges and where they need support. Maybe she could start by talking about them with more respect and not like they're children 🙄
Says the engineers are complaining about lack of system visibility. That's absolutely key. She hasn't said it's being fixed
Bill back asking why it took whistleblowers and review to address these problems. Fintan says they were addressing them already, it's a young organisation, they were being proactive blah blah blah
Bill mentions NESO being safety critical. Points out the big difference between the theory of being able to engage with exec vs trust they will be listened to, respected and not penalised. How are they making sure it's a success. Fintan waffles. People need to feel heard. Says people who were interviewed by Eversheds were happy to raise issues but the feedback loop was the issue.... Really? So why did so few staff speak to Eversheds??
Bill... Are you and the exec going to talk more to staff at all levels. Fintan says he does this all the time. Really? Engineers told the Times he treats them like "pond life"
Now @ClaireforTAY
Q if there's a toxic culture exec going to meet staff might not been seen as positive 😂 Fintan says he calls ahead before visiting the control room. Tries to be open and engaging with staff (the Times was told he sees them as pond life)
How aware is he of how he comes across given what's in the press 😂
Now onto priorities. The flexibility road map might conflict with energy security...
Kayte takes this one. Talks about progress on demand side flex. Challenged on targets which they are meeting (under Triad avoidance they got c2 GW response. Now they get 10% of that with DFS. Hardly a triumph)
Says grid isn't inoperable just because there's less flex (just as well)
Q do they have all the levers they need? A market still sees barriers eg smart meter deployment and thinks there's good progress
Q what will they do instead if can't achieve flex? Yes we do planning. Nothing more substantive
Q you said earlier NESO's role was to ensure incentives were there for market to do it's job and that NESO shouldn't have all the levers. But now you're saying you're pulling all the levers... Do you even understand what your responsibilities are here? 😂 Is NESO's remit too complicated and too extensive
Fintan says no. Quelle surprise. Need to communicate better (that's the answer for the day... It's all fine we're just bad at telling you it's all fine) also industry doesn't understand properly (blaming the market is another theme.. Not me guv...)
Thinks long term strategic planning should be together with system operation (how does that tie with using 1980s software to balance the grid? He's talking about the toolbox being good enough but the control room says it's not)
Q how do you ensure you achieved that other than absence of it going wrong which might just be luck! Great question. NESO tells us the grid is secure because there was no blackout
Fintan waffles about operability reports and market engagement and interaction with overseas TSOs. Blah blah. Also engineering advisory committee. But have ignored their own engineers according to the Eversheds report. Wonder if someone will point that out?
Q do you personally have the capacity to keep on top of all this. Guess what... He says yes!! He's worked in control rooms himself and works with brilliant people
Now Catherine Fookes again on whether Wales getting fair share of connections. Asking about the Republic of Ireland freeloading on the GB grid would be a better question
Some stuff on burying power lines or not ("undergrounding" isn't a word. There is a word for this. It's "burying"... The act of putting something under the ground)
(bored with the stuff on connections... It's mostly administrative. The real issues are on security)
Chairman Bill is back focusing on the breadth of NESOs responsibilities and how critical staff engagement is. Expertise in the organisation is key. Do they accept this from the session and the review
Fintan... More on how brilliant the pond life are
Session ends