Lucy White

ANALYSIS: Andy Burnham makes a huge gamble on a radical electoral strategy he knows could backfire The PM’s critics said he was just Keir Starmer with a northern accent. Today he showed that couldn’t be further from the truth, taking massive risks by plunging head first into some of Britain’s most controversial and divisive political debates. He opened the door to rejoining the EU or at least the single market. He ditched the triple lock loved by pensioners to pay for their care. He pledged electoral reform to favour progressive parties. He signalled big tax rises are coming. “I accept I may pay a political price,” Burnham said. One of his own aides calls it a gamble. Another ally praises his bravery but concedes don’t know if it’ll pay off. The PM’s supporters argue he is delivering the change Labour thought they were getting when they won the election. One says the speech will in future be viewed as a historic moment on a par with Attlee and Bevan setting up the NHS. Several Labour MPs tell Bloomberg Burnham deserves credit for doing the morally and fiscally right thing. @Meg_HillierMP calls it “exhilarating.” BUT there is real trepidation on both the right and left of the Labour Party tonight over whether this bold approach could go wrong. A former Labour cabinet minister under Starmer says the decision to scrap the triple lock is “completely insane.” They call it “winter fuel on crack.” A former senior Labour aide describes it as “madness on stilts”, adding that reopening the Brexit debate will be divisive for the country and mean Labour’s opponents can accuse them at the next election of supporting unlimited immigration from the EU. “There are so many alternatives to funding social care without cutting pensions,” John McDonnell tells Bloomberg. Neil Duncan-Jordan says: “In politics you’re supposed to learn from getting your fingers burnt. Labour got itself into a mess over winter fuel and lost trust with millions.” And when the excitement from the speech settles, the truth is none of these policies will be delivered any time soon, leaving Burnham still without a clear plan to improve people’s lives before the next election. The danger, the former minister says, is he could be viewed as the “buy now, pay later” PM. With brilliant Bloomberg team @LucyGJWhite @JacobReid02 @ChaplainChloe @Joe_Mayes: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read with @ChaplainChloe @LucyGJWhite @EllenAMilligan — Andy Burnham’s two week policy blitz has got him a boost in the polls. Privately, his allies say it’s been as much about the politics as the policies. — No10 know the substance of what they’ve done so far isn’t life-changing. Social care reforms are a year plus away. The energy bills VAT cut will be swallowed by price rises. The rhetoric on North Sea drilling disguises a continuation of existing plans. Welfare, devolution and defence policies are all details-to-follow. — According to allies, behind the announcements is a strategy aimed at showing that in Burnham Labour now has an energetic, ultra-politically-focused leader whose personal communication style can convince voters he’s on their side. In other words, that he’s the antithesis of Keir Starmer. The PM hopes it will buy him some time to work out a fuller plan at an incredibly challenging budget on October 28. — He’s had some unlikely inspiration. Burnham sees merits in certain aspects of Donald Trump’s communications style, allies say, especially his ability to dominate the daily news agenda through the force of his personality. Rattling through announcements emulated Trump’s cascade of executive orders at the beginning of his second term. It’s also been evident in Burnham’s combative response to media coverage he disagrees with. — Burnham allies suggest a difference between him and Starmer is that the new PM is intensely political and lives and breathes politics 24/7, while Starmer wasn’t politically interested. Burnham checks in on the political conversation on social media throughout the day, another Trump trait that sets him apart from previous PMs, and every decision he makes is rooted in what will win votes for Labour, they say. — While that’s music to the ears of MPs who wanted a more politically savvy leader, others are unconvinced. Some Starmer supporters warn Burnham risks slipping into boosterism or populism and letting voters down when harder choices come into view. The presidential focus on “Andy” and highly centralised No10 is at odds with his pledge to be inclusive, one says. Burnham’s way of acting as a single entity will have to adapt as he becomes the leader of a cabinet, let alone the PLP. — It’s something Downing Street is aware of: next week cabinet ministers will take the lead on a series of interventions in a bid to avoid suggestions it’s a one-man band. Labour MPs say they interpreted his early announcements as a signal of what’s to come, welcoming the early momentum but tempering their optimism with caution that he now has to follow through. — The other big question on Labour lips is his electoral strategy. Some around Burnham think he should not wait until 2029 and that a vote in his first year in office would capitalise on his poll numbers and the weakness of opposition parties. They fear if he waits events could take over and his popularity could wane. (Burnham said this week he won’t call an “early” election.) — But others are worried. A Labour strategist says that whenever it happens, it looks like he’ll be heading into an election advocating major tax rises. They think that with Kemi Badenoch performing better and Farage and Polanski struggling, the narrative of fractured, multi-party British politics might be overdone. They fear the next election could become a traditional fight between Labour redistribution and Tory warnings about tax rises. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

***NEW: Bloomberg read on one of the most extraordinary days I can remember reporting on British politics*** Andy Burnham today promised the most transformational government in four decades with a long list of expensive policy ambitions that will cost tens of billions of pounds. The question is how on earth he’s going to pay for it. Major new borrowing and tax rises look inevitable. It sets up months of uncertainty before an historic budget. Burnham cut a confident figure showcasing his change in style from Keir Starmer. His rhetoric, heavy on ambition to totally rewire Britain’s economy and fix seismic problems his predecessors shied away from, won immediate plaudits from MPs on the left who wanted this from the start. But he has set himself a vast challenge fraught with fiscal risk. Reforming social care is a noble aim and he will be lauded if he succeeds, but it will cost billions however he does it. He says he’s looking at raising the personal tax allowance. That would be hugely popular but will cost billions more. His remarks to reporters this afternoon on looking for “all flexibility” in the fiscal rules spooked investors and sent gilts sliding. That’s an early warning shot from markets on his limited room for manoeuvre on borrowing. Burnham saved the big shock for after markets closed. John Healey as chancellor means 3% of GDP on defence spending by 2030 - huge for national security but yet billions more spending. Bloomberg is told Burnham and Healey are looking at defence bonds to pay for it. But that is still borrowing. Economists are already extremely sceptical that all this is deliverable. “Either he can’t deliver this or we’re in for big tax hikes,” says @PJTheEconomist. The left like it so far with some MPs saying his address felt like the first “proper Labour” speech delivered by a leader for a while with a focus on more left-wing policies.  Others on the right express concerns about the amount of spending and the sacking of fiscal hawks from the cabinet. “Totally bonkers,” says one. “This is completely mad,” says another. And by purging Starmer’s loyalists he has stored up big political risk for the future with a growing list of enemies. One calls it a “dangerously hubristic reshuffle.” Some MPs praise the scale of his ambitions but warn of the battle he’ll face to deliver on them and not disappoint. By promising so much he’s given himself a huge amount to live up to, one says. The left might be happy now but they’ll turn when he tries to cut welfare, another MP predicts. They say most prime ministers want to under-promise and over-deliver, but Burnham risks doing the opposite. With top team @ChaplainChloe @EllenAMilligan @LucyGJWhite

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read Two weeks into the Makerfield campaign, the most consequential by-election in recent history is threatening to deepen divisions rather than fix the country’s problems. — It’s fair to say Andy Burnham’s campaign has yet to set Labour alight with optimism. The overwhelming mood in the party is flat. It also appears to be a toss-up: Labour and Reform officials both say it looks like a neck-and-neck finish between the two parties. — Burnham has yet to engage in any real detail about his policies if he becomes PM. He has only spoken in very broad terms about more state intervention. His campaign has no air war. Some in Labour worry it opens him up to the charge that he doesn’t have a plan for real change. His team argue he’s focused on his ground game rather than setting out a national manifesto, but that isn’t tenable. — The “hot essay summer” sparked by Tony Blair has left Labour even more divided. Some think it’s welcome to have a “battle of ideas.” Others worry the public will think they should have had these debates years ago not halfway through their time in office. One MP decries the quality of the Burnham, Streeting and Starmer responses to Blair, saying all three lacked substance or policy specifics and said little of interest to most Britons. — Some think Blair’s intention was to draw Burnham out and expose him as having no plan beyond left-wing platitudes. Burnham considered giving a speech in response but dropped that idea. Some Starmer supporters have grown in confidence that the PM would be competitive in a leadership contest against Burnham based on the evidence of the last two weeks. It is clear the Labour right will seek to destabilise Burnham even if he becomes PM, foreshadowing a repeat of the Tory years. — Both Labour and Reform officials say it is too early to tell if local interest and social media noise about the far-right Restore will translate into votes. Labour have added a button for Restore on their canvassing app to track support. Some Burnham supporters hope the right could be split and see talking up Restore as clever politics. But other aides are pretty appalled by that, warning they are playing a dangerous game and must not be seen to be promoting the far-right. — Reform is also under pressure over their candidate’s social media history. Some in the party are frustrated he wasn’t adequately vetted, saying Farage was supposed to have professionalised the party. Others insist no one on the doorstep cares about these stories and it looks like a witch-hunt. — A Labour official says it’s madness that their party has entrusted the future of the country to a few thousand voters, including some with far-right views. They say it’s hard to disagree with Blair’s damning assessment that Labour is “playing with fire.” With @JacobReid02 @LucyGJWhite >>> bloomberg.com/news/articles/…