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Energy nerd. Creator of the NCP in-house algo. Research analyst specializing in resources w/ focus on energy & real estate. Principal at Nugget Capital Partners

Main Street
Joined March 2022
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$HR.UN circular is out and it shows that Hofstedter and the "commitee" turned down numerous superior cash offers to the $Go.U deal. Add these facts to the activist letter yesterday and Mr. Ho-Fraudster and "Shady Steve" Gross is clearly in trouble and won't be getting approval.
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YIKES. That is without Iran. Big trouble ahead for da bulls. #OOTT
While Brent crude prices have stabilized and futures backwardation remained well entrenched, Dated Brent prices are now below prompt Brent futures and the front half of the Brent CFD curve is in contango. Physical market says we're currently balanced-to-slightly oversupplied.
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Eric Nuttall getting heavy into the OFS has historically been a top signal. Good luck to da bulls.
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
Revamped twitter/X account is live. Old account will be de-activated. Please follow along to read our weekly thoughts and notes. You can also subscribe to our email distribution list on our website.
From a Canadian retail success story to a potential global powerhouse, Aritzia is entering an ambitious new phase of growth. With plans to double its U.S. store footprint by 2032 and establish a meaningful presence overseas, how far could they go? bit.ly/4iH41a4
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
First up: HORMUZ War is over Sell oil (and tankers obv) Buy China I can't believe JD VANCE said it out loud and laying out the Rep framework going forward: Retreat from Iran. 🧵 nitter.cf/JDVance/status/2118004…
Jhc, I go away for a couple of days and everything goes wild. Idk what y’all did, but my book sure appreciates it. 🥂
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
Nasdaq down 6.4%, the steepest single day drop since March 2020. Yet 10-year yield rallied only 5 bps. We’ve got a problem. An AI collapse can morph into a fiscal crisis.
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
Please vote AGAINST $HR.UN sale arrangement. Don't miss out on telling management that their crooked plans make no sense.
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
Many furus will learn to love bonds the hardway. Tried to warn 'em.
17 bps drop in the 10 year is actually kind of terrifying even if I'm having one of the better days of the year What's going on? @Jefffeldman
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It's gonna stay high to punish the $Qqq bulls. If bond yields coming down nicely correlated to big stock market gains the status quo would continue . Need to see real market bloodshed to get bond yields down. Locked and loaded bonds which are now my largest overweight.
And 10 year still at 4.9%?
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
Full on tech/semi crash underway. Sure looks like the market throwing in the towel on the AI capex supercycle.
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$Asts and $Geo, two NCP top short ideas continue to drop like lead stones. Where to cover? ASTS pretty easy, probably around $0.
$ASTS continues to wither away with another nasty decline on the session and our short is deep in the money. All back office ladies are very pleased. Our $3.80 price target remains. Traditional telcos no longer short but won't be surprised if these are false flag relief rallies.
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$ASTS continues to wither away with another nasty decline on the session and our short is deep in the money. All back office ladies are very pleased. Our $3.80 price target remains. Traditional telcos no longer short but won't be surprised if these are false flag relief rallies.
$ASTS now down $12 since my post only in October. Have been pounding table max bearish for some time. Our p/t was lowered today to the $3 dollar handle as our head technical trader thinks that is where the next level of support is. Still time to bail on meme stocks. 1999 callin!
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Oil tanking even without production from Iran as other Mideast producers are ramped up and will ramp up further. Canada gone balls to the wall & will also ramp up. Meanwhile massive loss of refining demand & price sensitive demand destruction. Tough tape ahead for oil boyz, imho
bought back in here to $CVE lets see what develops. Heck of a hit to the whole #oil complex now. Not sure everything is quite that fixed yet.
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Our camp's $6 handle price target remains in play for 2027. I feel very confident about it. Iran war fanboys do not realize, Trump has zero mandate.
Brent crude oil is now down 20% since the intraday high last Friday, trading at a 2-month low below $95 a barrel.
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
RBOB falling out of bed now. The oil driven inflation trade is O-V-E-R. Bond rally just beginning, it will take the Fed a bit to catch up but say so long to those rate hike expectations. Consumer discretionary, financials, & semiconductors the place to be for the next 6 months.
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Our lady of $LBRT now down 51% sine Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) analysts earmarked it as a top investment idea on the short side. Probably going to be another fantastic buy at around $10, assuming the cull their AI spending along with other clowns in OFS space.
$HOD.TO GET YOUR SHORT BOOK READY. I hope we see $200 oil. I will short it in size. Thought about other stuff like $LBRT as well. High beta alpha shorts. Crazy overvalued.
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$GEO a best in class short idea as predicted by the team at NCP. Dropping like a stone as Trump got wasted and has no mandate for such a controversial agenda. Look no further then Texas which now has a Latina governor. Good luck rounding up the browns in droves.
OFFICIALLY INITIATED A SHORT IN $GEO. I expect this stock to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest victims, of Trump's downfall. Happy to hear bullish case for this stock. Between lawsuits and less Latino grandmothers being arrested in knitshops, I see a stark future here.
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Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) retweeted
TLT only up 0.4%. Underreaction! Prospect of higher taxes, less AI investment, and lower stock prices are all great for bonds.
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$Mty.to is a 10% holding for me as I wrote a few months ago and made it a top investment idea. Congrats to anybody who followed thru on it. Back office ladies will be very pleased with me today.
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Looks like the anti data center trade may be the place to be in 2027. Trump's Republicans are likely to be an endangered species after tonight. One of the big political issues according to @AnnaEconomist, the economist of choice for the Nugget Capital Partners (NCP) entire team.
I was bullish on AI build out coming into the year, pointed out the speed of the bipartisan political backlash in June, and highlighted again in September that those risks were materializing.
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