Kevin Holland

Resilient economy will be tested by this very recent sharp movement up in market gas prices - this is the UK chart per therm close to 240p on Iran war reintensification, a high since late 2022. If you transpose the Ukraine 2022 shock on this, at the same stage, while avoiding the massive spike, after 241 days, today’s shock is more enduring… prices have trebled from 79p, whereas at this point for the Ukraine it was 204p, actually below pre invasion level. Energy companies say the unit prices of gas and electricity are heading higher than the point which led to expensive universal Govt intervention in 2022, the sort ruled out this time (“wasted on rich households”). Still whatever the Budget brings we weren’t expecting activation of the plans prepared for a bigger scheme. If this endures, 5% inflation on the cards. Since the Budget plans and forecasts were locked down, the tricky balancing act just got worse.