TX4Truth

2026 Midterm Recap We Warned You. Now What? Texas Republicans chose chaos over competence. The bill came due. Well, that escalated quickly. What looked like a tough but winnable election turned into a bloodbath. Conventional wisdom said Republicans might lose a statewide office or two and give up a few House seats, but hold the Governor’s office, Lieutenant Governor’s office, Comptroller, Attorney General, and most of the statewide machinery. Instead, Democrats swept from the U.S. Senate race through the statewide ticket and took control of the Texas House. The lone bright spot? Republicans maintained their 19–12 advantage in the Texas Senate. So how did we get here? Who owns this mess? And where do we go from here? We hate to say we told you so. Actually, after the abuse we took for saying it the first time, we don’t hate it that much. On March 6, after the primary, we published “Chaos vs. Competence.” We warned that nominating Ken Paxton in the runoff with Cornyn could have dire consequences down the ballot. For that, the party’s fringe factions called us RINOs, traitors, and just about everything else their limited imaginations could produce. They wanted chaos. They got it. Unfortunately, the rest of Texas got the bill. To read more, follow the link: texastruth.substack.com/p/20… #txlege #midterms #midtermrecap #texaselections #wesawthiscoming

Seems kind of appropriate to replay this record of what we said would happen if Paxton won the runoff. #txlege #texasmidterm #johncornyn #wetoldyouso texastruth.substack.com/p/ch…

Who loves the Filibuster now?

A couple of quick thoughts going through our minds. Candidate Quality Matters. Vouchers may have been the straw that broke the Republicans back.

In the last Midterm in 2022, the top of the ticket saw @GregAbbott_TX had around a 565,000 vote advantage after Early Voting. He increased it to a 883,443 final tally advantage after Election Day was finalized. Today, some data show Democrats have around a 25,000 vote advantage statewide after Early Voting. Where do you think it will end up. There will be under-votes on some down ballot races, which races do you think and by how much? #txlege #TexasElections #EarlyVoting #ElectionResults #VoterTurnout #ElectionData #Election2026 #MidTerm2026

The Votes Are Coming In. A look at early-voting numbers, the limits of partisan predictions, and the voters neither party should take for granted. Welcome back. We are almost there. Almost done with the texts. Almost done with the mailers. Almost done with the commercials warning that civilization depends on electing someone you wouldn’t trust to supervise a garage sale or alone in a room with your spouse. For now. Next comes: “We’re already preparing for the next election. Donate immediately.” The election ends. The invoice never does. While the political class prepares its next emergency fundraising appeal, we thought we would look at the numbers. Thanks to Theo Elections and Derek Ryan for compiling the voting information that lets the rest of us political nerds spend entirely too much time staring at spreadsheets. We cut this analysis off at October 27. The numbers will keep moving. We would like to finish an article eventually. Republicans have an edge. Nobody has a victory speech. As of October 27, 5,589,453 Texans had voted at early-voting locations across the state. Among them: - 1,734,330 had participated only in Democratic primaries during the last four primary elections. - 1,790,465 had participated only in Republican primaries during that same period. That gives the Republican-history group a 56,135-voter advantage. An edge? Yes. A reason to order the victory balloons? No. For more follow the link below: #txlege #2026elections #texaselections #breakingdownthenumbers texastruth.substack.com/p/th…

Where Is the Transparent Fighter We Were Promised? D’Rinda Randall wanted the responsibility of leading the Republican Party of Texas. From the Abraham George data controversy to the closing stretch of the election, members deserve more than assurances and occasional appearances. D’Rinda Randall did not win a narrow mandate to keep the chair warm. According to the Republican Party of Texas’s own biography, she won the chairmanship with more than 80 percent of the convention vote—an outcome she calls “The Unity Vote.” Her campaign platform promised grassroots empowerment, stronger precinct leadership, and support for Republicans working to defeat Democrats. She argued that becoming chair would allow her to implement strategies she could not pursue as vice chair—strategies she described as essential to future Republican victories. Those are not modest expectations imposed by impatient critics. They are the expectations she helped create. So here is the question: Are we getting the transparent fighter we expected, or are we getting another chairman whose supporters must explain why we should be satisfied with less? Two tests stand out: the party’s response to Abraham George’s reported export of its database, and Randall’s leadership in the closing stretch of the election. One tests whether she will demand accountability. The other tests whether she can turn a convention mandate into an unmistakable statewide effort. Winning the title was the beginning. Where is the follow-through? To read the rest of the article follow the link: texastruth.substack.com/p/wh… #txlege @DrindaRandall @CoveyTX

They Get the Clicks. We Get the Cleanup. Influencers sell certainty, prominent voices amplify it, and the rest of us are expected to defend the mess. What a fucking debacle. It started as a whisper. It ended with our party looking like a bunch of fucking idiots. Not because we lacked a legitimate argument. Not because Democrats outsmarted us. But because, once again, people speaking to a Republican audience turned speculation into a headline—and the rest of us got handed the bill. The Republican Party can be a great party. That is precisely why this shit is so frustrating. We should be able to demand better from the people speaking in our name. We should be able to distinguish a serious political argument from somebody chasing attention. And we should not have to spend every Monday defending whatever the loudest idiot posted on Sunday. But for too long, that has been the arrangement. They get the clicks. We get the cleanup. To continue reading follow the link: texastruth.substack.com/p/th… @slocumfortexas @nicksortor @RheinAmacher @CarolineWren @SaraGonzalesTX @Michellebbz @TickleTexts #TXlege #CommonSenseRepublicans #ClicksAndCleanup #TexansForTruth #TexasPolitics #FactsOverClicks #VerifyBeforeYouAmplify #RepublicanAccountability

Tommy, we had our weekly conference call this morning, and your role in this whole debacle came up—specifically, whether you’re getting paid. Someone in our group said, “Tommy must be getting paid. Look at how often he posts and reposts on social media. Who devotes that much time and effort to something without expecting anything in return?” After talking it through, we landed here: you may not be getting paid now, but we suspect you’re expecting something in return down the road. That leaves one question: if you’re not getting paid today, what do you expect the payoff to be later? If your answer is simply keeping Talarico out of the Senate, we’d be fine with that, too. We would be fine with redoing the vote and seeing where we come out this far down the road. We think Talarico's doctrine is way off base and would be at a detriment to the State. But we also can’t help wondering whether another run for office is what you really have in mind.

These guys bring the heat. Every.Single.Time. texasscorecard.exposed/almos… #txlege #followthemoney

This clown @HappyWarriorUS caught a typo on one of our posts talked trash and then blocked us. You want to throw rocks, but don’t want the heat? Clown. We can see why she’s single.