director of analysis @EquisResearch and adjunct at @uscprice
Los Angeles
Joined November 2023
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Great thread from my colleague @mjavierrod on Lula’s 10 million additional votes. Worth adding that abstention fell to its lowest level since 2006.
Juan Machado retweeted
Where did Lula's extra votes come from?
Voters of the other candidates split almost evenly and gave him a net of 0.6 million.
The bulk came from people who had cast blank or spoiled ballots, or stayed home: a net 4.3 million.
(An estimate, station by station.)
How did Lula win the runoff? Part 2 🧵
Women shifted toward Lula and accounted for the net fall in abstention.
A closer look by sex, age and schooling, using @shirokuriwaki & @CoryMcCartan’s ecological-inference method for ballot boxes, the most detailed level available.
Those with at most some primary school are Lula’s base: 60.6% → 62.6% (+2.0), and their turnout rose 5.6%.
The real shift came from those with primary-to-secondary schooling: 46.2% → 49.9% (+3.7). College-educated: +1.2.
Women already leaned Lula in round 1 (55.7% of the two-way vote vs 41.6% for men) and moved further in the runoff: 59.5% (+3.8). Men: +0.9.
They also drove the entire drop in abstention: women’s turnout rose ~4 pts (80% → 84%); men’s barely changed (78.3% → 77.8%).
How did Lula win the runoff? By winning over those who didn’t vote for him in round 1. His biggest gains came in places with more women, more white voters and more evangelicals. 🧵
More evangelical zones swung further toward Lula, despite smaller increases in ballots cast in those areas. The swing remains positive after demographic controls.
Juan Machado retweeted
Here's where Latino polling stands in October: most estimates land above 2024. But there is disagreement over whether Dem support will fall in the 2020/2022 vs. 2016/2018 tiers. @EquisResearch pegs support around '20 right now (due largely to recall weight).
Juan Machado retweeted
We surveyed registered voters across 7 of the states that will decide 2028 — AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
In partnership with Impact Research, Equis Research, and HIT Strategies.
First look on @MSNOWNews👇 Full data dropping soon.
ms.now/news/democrats-feel-g…
Juan Machado retweeted
A contribution to the weighting discourse: Equis weights to 2024 vote. What happens if you don’t? @_juancmac @mjavierrod show the impact of several likely voter schemes in a recent sample of TX Hispanics— with and without recall. Without recall, the estimates go to Jupiter.
NEW: Hispanic voters in TX broke for Trump in 2024. In our most recent @equisresearch poll, they've swung all the way back to 2018 levels, landing at 63% for @TeamTalaricoHQ & 64% for @GinaHinojosaTX (in 2-way/undecideds allocated proportionally). tinyurl.com/equistxpoll
Juan Machado retweeted
Most of Trump’s Hispanic gains came from vote-switching. But nearly 9/10 of those switchers wouldn't fit the campaign criteria for a persuasion target. What we saw in 2024, and why more people should be talking about the Steitz Voter...
Juan Machado retweeted
Equis never released a 2024 post-mortem. We came to realize we needed to wrap our minds around an era, not an election. Out of that comes The New Dynamic, a project from me & @RachelMStein1 to look at Latino voters (and the broader electorate) with fresh eyes.
Juan Machado retweeted
In the NYT today talking about the midterms alongside some smart ppl. Data, to us at @EquisResearch, is about perspective, not prophecy. Here you get a little of both. Surprised to find myself more bullish for Dems than others!
Juan Machado retweeted
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers?
Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
Juan Machado retweeted
New from @EquisResearch 🧵
About a quarter of Latinos who supported Trump in 2024 either express disappointment in him (19%) or regret their vote (8%).
And, there continue to be signs of defection from GOP: 11% of Trump voters say they plan to support a Democrat in 2026.
