now: @equisresearch | then: @sandyforcouncil @georgiademocrat & @missionforarizona
Washington, DC
Joined January 2020
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Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Equis is cooking its polls! (This is a joke.) Here are how different screens & weights impact the topline in the latest Latino data. 2024 recall does a LOT more work in a complicated national poll.
A contribution to the weighting discourse: Equis weights to 2024 vote. What happens if you don’t? @_juancmac @mjavierrod show the impact of several likely voter schemes in a recent sample of TX Hispanics— with and without recall. Without recall, the estimates go to Jupiter.
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
What’s changed since September is that nothing has changed.
Senate: 52
House: 235
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
.@rahnamepting explains why she helped launch Project 270:
Every presidential cycle, we have been laser-focused on winning the primary. That’s what presidential primary candidates are supposed to do.
But we do that without being armed with information about where voters are on the pathway to the 270 electoral votes we need in the general election.
We want to make sure we understand where those voters are now — not when we get to the general election.
So we did a poll in the seven traditional battleground states. It tells us there’s a ton of opportunity out there for Democrats to take the lead and charge straight to the White House in 2028.
Excited to work with this crew to get an early and honest read on ‘28.
We surveyed registered voters across 7 of the states that will decide 2028 — AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
In partnership with Impact Research, Equis Research, and HIT Strategies.
First look on @MSNOWNews👇 Full data dropping soon.
ms.now/news/democrats-feel-g…
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Why weighting by subgroup recall is so important.
A contribution to the weighting discourse: Equis weights to 2024 vote. What happens if you don’t? @_juancmac @mjavierrod show the impact of several likely voter schemes in a recent sample of TX Hispanics— with and without recall. Without recall, the estimates go to Jupiter.
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Latest Equis poll of TX Hispanics
NEW: Hispanic voters in TX broke for Trump in 2024. In our most recent @equisresearch poll, they've swung all the way back to 2018 levels, landing at 63% for @TeamTalaricoHQ & 64% for @GinaHinojosaTX (in 2-way/undecideds allocated proportionally). tinyurl.com/equistxpoll
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
What I’m seeing on the ground matches these poll results. Massive shift. Never seen anything like it.
But—a lot of what we’re seeing is negative partisanship, a frustration with Trump, not a newfound identification with Dems. That means the big question rn is turnout.
NEW: Hispanic voters in TX broke for Trump in 2024. In our most recent @equisresearch poll, they've swung all the way back to 2018 levels, landing at 63% for @TeamTalaricoHQ & 64% for @GinaHinojosaTX (in 2-way/undecideds allocated proportionally). tinyurl.com/equistxpoll
NEW: Hispanic voters in TX broke for Trump in 2024. In our most recent @equisresearch poll, they've swung all the way back to 2018 levels, landing at 63% for @TeamTalaricoHQ & 64% for @GinaHinojosaTX (in 2-way/undecideds allocated proportionally). tinyurl.com/equistxpoll
NEW in @playbookdc:
September polling from @EquisResearch finds that among likely Latino voters, Texas Dem governor candidate @GinaHinojosaTX leads Greg Abbott 59-35, a sign of the growing strength of her campaign.
Her biggest issue: name ID. 27% of Texas Latinos can't rate Hinojosa.
The new numbers come as Latino Democrats urge the Democratic Governors Association to put money behind Hinojosa.
She currently faces a huge financial disadvantage and is being outspent by Abbott roughly 10-to-1.
Both @TeamTalaricoHQ (+29) & @GinaHinojosaTX (+30) received better favorability ratings from Latino voters than the Democratic Party (+12) while @KenPaxtonTX (-23) & @GregAbbott_TX (-21) were in line with the GOP (-21). By Sept 20, over 1-in-4 Latinos still couldn’t rate Hinojosa
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
I was among the most bullish for Dems in July. That I'm now among the most bearish ("bearish" at a 229-seat House majority & a 50/50 Senate!) is an indication of how much conventional wisdom has shifted in just two months. (Still: my assumptions have not changed.)
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Most of Trump’s Hispanic gains came from vote-switching. But nearly 9/10 of those switchers wouldn't fit the campaign criteria for a persuasion target. What we saw in 2024, and why more people should be talking about the Steitz Voter...
a labor of love and countless hours poring over data and contending with different theories — so proud to share this work led by @carlosodio and @RachelMStein1
Equis never released a 2024 post-mortem. We came to realize we needed to wrap our minds around an era, not an election. Out of that comes The New Dynamic, a project from me & @RachelMStein1 to look at Latino voters (and the broader electorate) with fresh eyes.
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Came out of hiding to talk with the great @amyewalterabout new Equis polling + what we've learned about Latino voters in the Trump era.
🎧NEW Odd Years pod! @amyewalter talks with @carlosodio about what new polling from @EquisResearch reveals about Latino perceptions of Trump and the economy - and what it all means for 2026.
Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
Jack (@jherrerx) is always a must-read. Glad to be in this one alongside @mariadfq @ChuckRocha @madrid_mike
Links below to article + the Beyond the Ballot project from @EquisResearch
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
In response to @thehill's inquiries about sexual misconduct allegations against @RepSwalwell, his (now former) chief of staff says Swalwell "rightfully has no one working for him anymore"⬇️
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
NEW: The Trump administration is launching an intensive immigration enforcement operation primarily targeting hundreds of undocumented Somali immigrants in the Minneapolis region, according to an official with knowledge and documents obtained by the NYT.
nytimes.com/2025/12/02/us/po…
Maria Di Franco Quiñonez retweeted
🗣️🗣️🗣️
AFFORDABILITY NOT AUTHORITARIANISM
Latest @EquisResearch poll & memo— on the state of play after ‘25 elections— are out today, as featured by @daveweigel
The latest from @EquisResearch on the state of play re: Latino voters after the recent elections and our second “Pulse Check” poll, by @daveweigel
Read our full memo here: weareequis.us/research/latin…
