Randy Dunham

Breadth is improving. Over 60% of stocks within the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average. That’s the highest reading since August. Read more here: randysdailyprint.substack.co…

Everyone knows midterm years are notoriously volatile. What matters is how they stick the ending. Going back to 1950, Q4 tends drift higher 3-5% starting in October. Seasonality is not certainty. Pair this with a change in narrative. Read more here: randysdailyprint.substack.co…

Bitcoin trades as an extension of the growth trade.. but with more volatility and more opportunity. 👀 With BTC breaking out into a new bull cycle, is the growth trade gearing up to follow along? Beautiful note by Randy this morning.. read it here: randysdailyprint.substack.co…

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Banks have been getting destroyed. Like absolutely wrecked. The $KBE bank ETF underperformed the S&P 500 by 12% over the last 50 trading days. That's not normal weakness, that's capitulation level stuff. But here's what most people miss when everyone is panicking. The average underperformance over 50 days is only 0.4%. When banks drop below the -1 standard deviation level at -9.7%, which happened in late September, something interesting always follows. The historical data is pretty clear: After hitting these extreme underperformance levels, banks gained 6.85% on average over the next 50 days. The S&P 500 only gained 3.11% in those same periods. That's a 3.74 percentage point edge for banks. We're now seeing the spread climb back above that -1 standard deviation threshold. The ratio charts are sitting right at levels where banks have historically started relative rallies. I've learned the hard way that when everyone hates a sector and the technical setup screams oversold, you at least need to pay attention. This isn't about being a perma bull on banks, it's about recognizing when the risk-reward gets interesting. This could also signal a broader bounce in rate sensitive sectors that got hammered by the yield spike.

Tech just tanked 8% while the market only dropped 2% That's not normal. Every single other sector beat the index with staples and energy leading the charge One week doesn't break a trend, but this could be the start of something bigger Read more here: letters.thetradinginitiative…

Tech has outperformed the market by 11.5% in 50 days. That's way above the historical average of 1%. When tech gets this stretched, data shows it typically underperforms over the next 50 days. Plus China's making moves in chips now. Read more here: letters.thetradinginitiative…

Large cap growth just flipped the script. For most of 2026, mid and small caps were winning. They were up by about 10 percentage points at one point. Then September hit and everything changed after the Fed meeting on September 15-16 when they raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent. Suddenly large cap growth started climbing while mid and small caps kept dropping. Here's what I think is happening: investors are getting nervous and running to safety. They're ditching the smaller, riskier plays and piling into the big established companies. Makes sense when you think about it. Large caps have pricing power, stronger balance sheets, and the resources to weather higher borrowing costs without breaking a sweat. Small companies? They feel every rate hike. This isn't just about performance anymore. It's about survival instincts kicking in. When rates go up and uncertainty creeps in, people want the boring reliable giants that print cash and dominate their industries. The market is basically telling us that defensive is the new aggressive right now. Are you seeing this shift in your own portfolio? Have you been rotating into larger positions or still betting on the smaller names?

The S&P 500 is basically being carried by tech right now. Strip out technology and the index would actually be down over the past few months. That's not an exaggeration. The numbers show a massive divergence between tech and everything else. So what does this mean? There are two camps here and both have valid points: Camp 1: This is dangerous. When only one sector drives gains, the market sits on unstable ground. Breadth matters and we don't have it. Camp 2: Who cares if it's concentrated. Tech companies are the strongest players right now. Of course they're leading. That's how markets work. I get both arguments honestly. But here's what caught my attention: this isn't just the Magnificent Seven doing their thing. When you look at the median tech stock this year, it's up solid double digits. The whole sector is participating. We use median instead of average because a few massive outliers skew everything. Some names are up 300 percent, 600 percent year to date. The average would be misleading. The median gives you a clearer picture of what most tech stocks are actually doing. The reality is simple. Technology is the undisputed leader right now and that strength runs deeper than just the headline names everyone talks about. Does narrow leadership worry you or do you think strong players should lead regardless of concentration? Read the whole post here: letters.thetradinginitiative…