Irreverent financial market analysis/commentary with a focus on chapter 11 bankruptcy, restructuring & distressed investing. DYOR. NF-or-legal-A. Subscribe š
Joined October 2014
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š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Arini should really buy Weil. Theyāre gonna need a legal team to work out their entire book. Major synergies there. Just think on Aston Martin aloneā¦.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
The remarkable story of Jim Cramer meeting a baby Chamath Palihapitiya before they both discovered how to destroy retail portfolios
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
This was how it all started!
Thank you @petition, for the early feedback:)
Some personal news: Hunterbrook Media has acquired The Bear Cave newsletter.
I started The Bear Cave to pursue independent investigative research and am excited to partner with a team that shares that mission. Hunterbrook will invest in bringing more original reporting to The Bear Caveās readership and together we will bring the publication to new heights.
Iād like to thank so many people for helping make The Bear Cave a reality, starting with Professor John Shoven at Stanford, my first paid subscriber Jim Carruthers, early mentors like Marc Cohodes, Andrew Left, Doomberg, Petition, Bill Martin, and many others, including Substack founders Chris Best, Hamish McKenzie, and Jairaj Sethi for making it possible for anyone anywhere to build a following and income from writing online.
I owe endless gratitude to everyone who read and shared The Bear Cave, and especially those who supported The Bear Cave with paid subscriptions.
Above all, The Bear Cave would not exist if not for all the activist short sellers who speak truth to power:
@CitronResearch
@FriendlyBearSA
@muddywatersre
@WolfpackReports
@JehoshaphatRsch
@ScorpionFund
@KerrisdaleCap
@ResearchGrizzly
@CapybaraShort
@NMRtweet
@HitHawk_
@NingiResearch
@GlassH_Research
@FuzzyPandaShort
@AureliusValue
@blueorcainvest
@IcebergResear
@CulperResearch
@GothamResearch
@SnowCapResearch
@FugaziResearch
@WhiteResearch
@SunlightPartner
@Pelicanwayre
@callistores
@BmfReports
@QCMFunds
@JCap_Research
@BonitasResearch
@Jonathan_Keith2
@viceroyresearch
@umibozuresearch
@HindenburgRes
@Manateeres
@MorpheusRes
Thank you.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
I asked a third-year to summarize a 200-page deposition.
He turned it around in 48 hours.
It was actually quite good.
I didn't tell him that, obviously.
I replied, "Is this the final version?"
I saw him typing for ten minutes, then stopping, then typing again.
He replied, "I can take another look."
He spent the entire weekend rewriting it.
He sent v2 on Sunday night.
I responded, "I liked the first one better. Let's use that."
He looked like he wanted to cry.
He essentially billed twenty hours to revert to the original draft.
I bill for the review time on both versions.
Insecurity is a billable asset.
If they aren't second-guessing themselves, they aren't trying hard enough.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Really wish this damn feed would stop pumping threads about how AI is the future and would go back to pumping threads about how NFTs are the future.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
excited to see what innovations private equity will bring to theā¦ hospice industry:
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Blue Owl classifies the same company as āchemicalsā in one fund and āsoftwareā in another. Same loan. Same borrower. Different label.
Their explanation: āEach fund has a different investment strategy, so classifications can differ.ā
This is what self-reported disclosure looks like. You get to pick your own sector the same way you get to pick your own marks.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
The market went from āThe Golden Age of Private Creditā to āThere may be nothing left to redeem if your fund has software debt on the booksā in the space of 12 months.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
From @petition's EOY letter
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Apollo says 77 cents. KKR says 91 cents. Same loan. Same company. Same quarter.
Fourteen point gap on Medallia debt. Record spread for private credit.
Illiquidity premium includes the premium of making up your own price.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
petition just interviewed William Snyder and covered a remarkable turnaround he led that deserves a book (met William this year, great guy).
Pilgrimās Pride (big chicken) went from ā$350M to +$640M of EBITDA in 1 year from closing plants and shedding unprofitable sales. Equity value in 4 years went from zero to $8B.
If that much value can be hiding inside a multibillion $ business with armies of consultants, imagine whatās untapped in Americaās SMBs.
Letās fix some businesses together.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Private credit guys patting themselves on the back for a loan realizing and not going tits up is high key absurd.
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Interesting post from @MikeFritzell and timely too given what I see as a maturing of the @substack platform. Mike's post has prompted lots of discussion/debate so I thought I'd add my 2c after 4 years of writing a full-time equities newsletter on SS; first off -
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Tariffs obliterating markets but my private credit positions showing remarkable stability
Quarterly valuations are a lifestyle choice
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Incredible to see Chamath trying the āman of the peopleā schtick when he is the best example of a Wall Street parasite who enriched himself at the expense of retail investors
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
Reached out to an IPO advisor for thoughts on rest of 2025. The reply: "Need a dog walker?"
š„PETITIONš„ retweeted
I live in Vegas, my mom works on the strip, can confirm, shit is super dead, and only people here are likely to have booked a while ago, whoever comes for conferences, and even then these people aren't spending
