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My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is published today! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
Steve Rayson retweeted
Here's one of the things @beeboileau and I found in our @TheIFS overnight analysis of the Budget. Healey has now allocated much of the spending reserve for the next few years, including to fund the Defence Investment Plan. This is categorically not what the reserves are for.
ALT John Healey has now allocated 40% of the day-to-day reserve between 27-28 and 28-29, and 25% of the capital reserve between 27-28 and 29-30
Steve Rayson retweeted
Indeed. This is what poorly thought through regulation does. This set of changes has made us poorer. This will particularly hit young people. Governments doing real damage.
Steve Rayson retweeted
📈 @OBR_UK now forecasts 10.8 million people will pay the higher or additional rate of income tax by March 2031.
This is 6 million more than if the higher rate threshold had risen with CPI inflation since 2022, and 250,000 more than the OBR forecast in March.
ALT Chart shows number of individuals aged 16+ paying higher or additional rate income tax (millions). Title states: "The freezing of tax thresholds since 2022 will have brought 6 million more into paying at least the higher rate of income tax by March 2031."
Steve Rayson retweeted
This puts into perspective. You can see average income growth over a 60 year period. This decade by the far the worst. Even worse than in 2010s which, at the time, were the worst in post war history.
Steve Rayson retweeted
Hidden away in the OBR report is this concerning graph showing housing completions - looks like even their reduced forecast is optimistic.
Plus rents and mortgages are going to get more expensive due to interest rates + the extra property tax.
New post:
The budget wasn't very interesting, but the OBR forecast was. Full of data + clues on the difficult decisions to come next year.
I look at seven key things we learnt - from the cuts departments are facing to the rising costs of housing.
samf.substack.com/p/the-iceb…
Steve Rayson retweeted
BREAKING
The OBR suggests that successive increases in the national living wage and the employment rights act will hit jobs
It says the employment right act will have a ‘negative economic impact’ and hit businesses through ‘increased uncertainty, lost flexibility and higher Labour related costs’
It says that these will ‘more than offset’ any potential increase in productivity
Steve Rayson retweeted
📽️Here's our mega screen on this year's mega Budget. LOADS of charts on what was, depending on how you look at it, either the biggest or the smallest Budget in modern history.
But arguably the biggest story of all is what it says about the shocking state of UK living standards👇
Steve Rayson retweeted
BREAKING
The OBR says the tax raid on landlords - increasing property income tax rates by another 2% - will:
1) Make it less likely that people become landlords, ‘reducing long term rental supply’ and leading to a ‘steady long-term rise in rents’
2) See landlords simply pass on costs to tenants, increasing rents
Steve Rayson retweeted
Govt wrong to keep the Plan 2 student loan threshold frozen at £29,385 for three years.
This means more graduates on low incomes paying a 37% marginal tax rate and no effort to repair a breach of trust.
Steve Rayson retweeted
OBR chart on real household disposable income growth over the decades. Just wow
Steve Rayson retweeted
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32.
Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
Steve Rayson retweeted
The tax burden is forecast to rise to yet another record level as fiscal drag continues to drive up revenues
They are now forecast to rise from 41.4 per cent of GDP this year to 42.9 per cent in 2031/32
Steve Rayson retweeted
Healey is increasing the tax on income from property and savings by two percentage points
Steve Rayson retweeted
Only a tiny upgrade to growth forecast this year. Much bigger downgrade next year to just 1%
Steve Rayson retweeted
I wrote about fiscal devolution in @thetimes yesterday. Also drew attention to the absolutely abysmal way in which this govt has treated much of local government over the last two years. Genuinely scandalous.
Mention fiscal devolution and you’ll be lucky to raise more than a yawn, but nothing else announced on Wednesday is likely to have greater significance thetimes.com/business/econom…
Steve Rayson retweeted
Against a target of 1.5 million homes built in five years, we are on track for 856,000 (57%). Such an abject failure would in any other venture require an urgent change of strategy. Here, they just quietly abandon the target.
ft.com/content/285af47d-a0cc…
Steve Rayson retweeted
There is nothing socialist about a system of free movement that is used by multi-nationals to undermine wages. WATCH my Brexit speech today.
Steve Rayson retweeted
The fiscal drag tax amounted to about £33 billion in the most recent tax year. That's why thresholds are unlikely to be defrosted at the Budget on Wednesday. Turns out that redefining the term "high earner" is a nice little earner for the government. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Steve Rayson retweeted
Exclusive:
Taxes are on course to rise to yet another post-war record in the Budget, the OBR is expected to find on Wedneday
New figures obtained by the Liberal Democrats show that more than half a million people will be dragged into paying the higher rate of income tax this year
The figures, from the House of Commons Library, show that 580,000 more people will pay the 40p higher rate in 2026-27, taking the total to 7.7 million
Senior police constables earning £52,014 will face a £570 tax hit, while senior nurses, who can earn £79,504, will pay an extra £2,660 every year
Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem Treasury spokeswoman, said: “These figures expose the shocking scale of the stealth tax raid started by the Conservatives and continued by Labour.
“Our key workers, such as nurses, teachers and police officers, [are] being hit with a massive tax penalty just as energy bills rise and inflation soars.”
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
