Orion Engine retweeted
Replying to @heyitsyashu @grok
Here are all the instances for 6% drops found by my engine. Last 4 times were solid bottoms
Orion Engine retweeted
Replying to @Mr_Derivatives
Qs down 4% and VIX up 40%, here's when it's happended. Usually its near a bottom. One can hope
Orion Engine retweeted
We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.
Orion Engine retweeted
$IWM Russell 2000 US Small Caps
Had a look this morning at historical data, market context and analogs for IWM using the @OrionEngineApp engine.
Interestingly, the 2 year forward projection based on the current YTD context points to continued upside for months/years, with a potential major market top around August 2028, just before the next Shmita year.
I've saved the setup and will be monitoring how it evolves over the coming months/years.
$IWM Russell 2000 US Small Caps
Continuing to recover with a touch & a local rejection at the 50d today.
Orion Engine retweeted
Replying to @LiquidThunder99 @OVcrypto
Not bad the "silly" engine so far, right ? 🫡 Or are you still absolutely certain and it is still a guaranteed outcome that Silver will pull a +271% move by December 31st?
Great job @OrionEngineApp 🤝
Orion Engine retweeted
We never experienced how bitcoin:native really moves AFTER gold had an expansion.. unless we invested in June 2011
Orion Engine retweeted
Are we really doing this again?
Apparently this Wednesday's FOMC is the most important of our lifetime. People say this a lot especially when price action has been this bad leading up to it.
The good news is that historically similar lead-ups led to a short-term relief bounce.
Orion Engine retweeted
Replying to @Mr_Derivatives
Crazy stuff. Had to lower the threshold cause >25% wasn't finding any matches. Last time it crashed over 20% in a day was during Covid.
Orion Engine retweeted
A few possible paths for ethereum:native comparing the last 3 months with historical analogs found by the engine.
Orion Engine retweeted
$BTC historically likes this staircase pattern of consolidating within a range, putting in a few days of exceptional performance, then chopping some more at a higher range.
If this keeps up, we could enter a $100k to $110k range by the beginning of November.
Orion Engine retweeted
Bitcoin's outlook for the coming months, a case study prepared exclusively with the Orion Engine's tools: a short thread. 🧵
First off, looking at the Historical view, on the past one year, it is clear $BTC has undergone a prolonged drawdown similar to every major one before.
Orion Engine retweeted
Think it's relevant to bring this thread back up
We are seeing Copper/Gold enter a new expansion phase, the last one of which took place in 2020-2021 (and not 2023-2024 in the AI/M2 rally)
Bitcoin has put in its bottom after a "muted" 50% drawdown instead of a typical 70-80% bear market
We've been insisting on the mid-cycle thesis for months not because it's my opinion but because all the charts, macro context, and correlations are pointing to it
And this matters greatly as it shapes the outlook of wether we are entering a "new" bull market or if it's a continuation of the previous one. A new expansion phase, sure, but not a new bull market
Remember equities and indices have not entered a macro bear market like Bitcoin has. The historical precedent for this is a mid-cycle correction where Bitcoin recovers sharply and enters its parabolic phase quickly while many expect a new prolonged cycle
Bitcoin/Gold also had bottomed in February despite BTC/USD making a new low in June, which was the same scenario as in 2020
The mid-cycle thesis is why the 4 year cycle bottom in October didn't make sense, and expecting 30-40k was not a smart idea
Again, all of this is supported by the charts and historical precedent. And like the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but often rhymes. Studying history is the best way to contextualize where in the cycle we might be today
Good morning everyone!
The case for this $BTC correction being a mid-cycle one rather than generalized macro bear market keep building.
BTC/GLD's most recent and highest accuracy analog is not 2022 as everyone is saying (for BTC/USD), but 2020.
The ratio has not swept the February lows and is building momentum.
Gold has already put in its parabolic move and has now entered its distribution phase.
Bitcoin did not pull a blow-off top post halving like it does every cycle.
Liquidity is looking to rotate down the risk curve as VIX drops below 15 and small caps have consistently been leading large caps despite being a mid-term year.
This is a textbook setup for Bitcoin to prove what happens when everyone thinks it's "boring" and has moved on to the next thing.
Even if BTC/GLD puts in 1/3 of the move it did in 2020 and assuming Gold stays between $3/4k, the PT for BTC is around 400k.
@uci0o12 @Sykodelic_ @DorkChicken @OVcrypto @lourenco_vs
Orion Engine retweeted
You can type "qqq up 2.7% in one session while breadth negative" in the Orion Engine and find out in a few seconds the last times this condition happended and what usually followed.
Works on almost any set of conditions, try it out.
Orion Engine retweeted
Replying to @OrionEngineApp
I always use OrionEngine to support my thesis.
Thanks for making such a useful tool free.
Orion Engine retweeted
When oil spikes 80% in three months, it usually doesn't go on to make new highs. $CL_F
The only exception since 1990 was the post-COVID rebound.
h/t @OrionEngineApp for the chart.
Orion Engine retweeted
October bottom or October ATH?
@benjamincowen and the 4-year cycle crowd are watching for an October/November bottom.
@TheOrionEngine’s analog model is pointing to the opposite:
A potential Bitcoin ATH around October.
Low liquidity.
Fragile market.
Late FOMO.
A consensus “October bottom.”
That’s exactly the kind of setup where the market can punish the obvious trade.
If the Clarity Act gets signed into law in August, the fundamental catalyst could be there too.
Does Bitcoin give everyone the easy bottom, or front-run them with a new ATH?































