Graeme Sandral

Climate analysis for Urana shows how stored soil water and rainfall pre-dry-climate-signal can buffer a dry finish. If July–September rainfall tracks the El Niño + positive IOD median of ~70 mm, the season would still sit around decile 4 overall, mainly because May–June rainfall has already delivered ~105 mm. The water balance is roughly: 30 mm stored pre-May 105 mm May–June rainfall 70 mm dry July–Sept outlook = ~205 mm total water supply Using a wheat WUE estimate of 24 kg/mm after allowing 60 mm for evaporation, this gives a yield potential of about 3.4 t/ha, with an economic target for nitrogen closer to 3.0 t/ha. Some districts will be better placed than this, and some worse, but the key point is clear: stored soil water is valuable insurance when spring rainfall turns off. I preiously wrote on X an analysis of the timing of climate signals and how timing matters - and this year is a point in case. The wider consern for me is how long the El Niño + positive IOD remain "on" and the answer to that will play out in the 2027 spring if the signal is still "on" in late winter.